Global Shipping Chokepoint Risk Tracker: Live Disruption and Transit Data

How to read the Chokepoint Monitor

The monitor scores each chokepoint on two things: how much traffic is moving through it and how much risk that route currently carries.

• Risk index (0 to 100): A higher score means higher disruption risk from conflict, attacks, congestion, or diversions. A rising score is an early signal to review routing and contingency plans.
• Daily transits: The number of vessels passing through each chokepoint per day. Sharp drops often point to fleets rerouting to avoid danger.
• Change vs normal: How current traffic compares to the baseline. A large negative number means vessels are avoiding the route. A large positive number means traffic is surging, often because ships are diverting from a nearby chokepoint.
• Situation summary: A daily briefing on what is driving each chokepoint's status, so you get the "why" behind the numbers.

Read the risk index and the transit trend together. Falling traffic plus rising risk is the clearest sign a route is under pressure.

How is the risk index calculated?

The risk index is a single 0 to 100 score built from four independent factors. Each factor is scored on its own scale and then added together, so the number is transparent and traceable rather than a black box. Two factors are specific to each chokepoint. Two are global market signals shared across every chokepoint.

Because vessel traffic and geopolitics are scored per chokepoint, two routes can share the same oil-price and financial-stress inputs yet still carry very different total scores. Here is how each factor works.

Vessel traffic (up to 40 points)

This factor measures how much traffic has contracted versus normal. We take the median of the last seven completed days of transits and divide it by that chokepoint's normal baseline to get a transit rate, then map that rate to a score. Traffic at or above normal scores 0. A complete halt scores the full 40.

Rates between these points are interpolated. A route running at 65% of normal, for example, scores about 8. Traffic comes from SeaVantage vessel-tracking data, using outbound transits over the last seven completed days. If fewer than three of those days have valid data, this factor returns no score rather than a guess.

Each chokepoint is measured against its own normal baseline, so the same percentage drop carries the same weight everywhere. The baselines are:

Geopolitical risk (up to 30 points)

This factor captures conflict, vessel attacks, blockade threats, and political tension at each specific chokepoint. It is produced daily as a 0 to 30 score alongside the situation summary you see for each route, so the number and the written briefing come from the same assessment. If an assessment cannot be produced for a route, the factor returns no score rather than a neutral placeholder.

Brent crude price (up to 20 points)

This factor reads the oil market two ways and takes the higher of the two, so it catches both a sustained high price and a sudden weekly spike without double counting the same move.

• Price level: Brent at or below \$80 scores 0. The score rises with price to a full 20 at \$120 or above (for example, \$90 = 5, \$100 = 10, \$110 = 15).
• Weekly move: A week-over-week rise of 1% or more scores the size of that percentage move, capped at 20. Price declines and rises under 1% score 0.

The final Brent score is the larger of those two. It uses the U.S. EIA Brent crude spot price only. If the latest EIA price is more than 10 days old, this factor returns no score.

Financial stress (up to 10 points)

This factor uses the OFR Financial Stress Index from the U.S. Office of Financial Research, a daily measure of stress across global markets that serves as a broad, VIX-style read on financial conditions. The index value is capped into a 0 to 10 score. If no recent value is available, the factor returns no score.

We never pad the number. If any factor's data is missing or stale, that factor is left out rather than filled with a neutral value, so the score you see always reflects real, current inputs.

Where the data comes from

Every number on the monitor traces back to a named source. The Transit Trend chart, for example, plots SeaVantage vessel counts against EIA oil prices so you can see traffic and price move together.

Ship positions on the map update in real time, every 15 minutes. The risk index and its daily inputs refresh once per day at around 00:00 UTC.

What is a maritime chokepoint?

A maritime chokepoint is a narrow passage along a widely used shipping lane that connects major bodies of water. Chokepoints matter because a large share of global trade depends on a small number of them. When one closes or becomes dangerous, ships must reroute thousands of miles, which raises costs, delays cargo, and strains supply chains worldwide.

The world's most critical chokepoints include the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the Suez Canal, the Strait of Malacca, and the Panama Canal.

Why chokepoint monitoring matters for supply chains

A single disruption at one chokepoint moves freight rates, insurance premiums, fuel costs, and delivery times across entire industries. Energy shipments, container traffic, and bulk commodities all run through these narrow passages.

Monitoring chokepoint risk in near real time lets shippers, traders, and logistics teams:

• Spot rerouting before it hits their lanes and rates
• Model the cost impact of a diversion around a blocked passage
• Give leadership early warning on exposure to a specific route
• Move from reacting to disruption to planning ahead of it

Which chokepoints can I track for free?

Two chokepoints are open to explore right now with live data, risk scoring, and daily situation summaries.

Frequently asked questions